Can the hottest environmental protection policy he

2022-08-15
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Can environmental protection policies help steel prices recover lost land

recently, the steel market has significantly slowed down the pace of rebound, and the market has entered a state of shock and stagflation. In particular, the current market has entered the off-season. If steel prices want to make a new improvement, injecting new benefits will become a necessary condition. However, in terms of the current market, the only bright spot is still environmental protection and production restriction

recently, Tangshan Municipal government issued the implementation plan for peak staggering production of blast furnaces in iron and steel enterprises during the heating season 2017-2018. From November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, the blast furnace production of iron and steel enterprises was limited for 120 days, and the total production limit ratio of the city was 50%. The total amount of blast furnace pig iron affected in four months was 18.21 million tons. In addition, since November 1, Tianjin has implemented the peak shift production policy for iron and steel enterprises in the heating season. The production limit ratio of major steel mills is between 40% and 60%, and the total impact is around 50%. Shaanxi, Taiyuan, Linyi and other places have also implemented peak shifting production by industrial enterprises from November to the middle or end of March next year

such a large-scale production restriction will inevitably affect the speed of resource release on the supply side of the market. With the positive concentration, will the pre holiday market usher in a new round of unilateral rebound

in the view of analyst maguanghui, the key to affecting the later steel price trend also depends on the actual implementation of the production restriction policy, the implementation of the policy, and whether there is a subsequent blast furnace production restriction. If it is in line with expectations or exceeds expectations, the market is expected to break through the weak and volatile market and start a wave of upward market; If the implementation of production restriction is not as strong as expected, the market will still face repeated shocks. The market that surged up and fell in the early stage will be interpreted again, and the market will also confirm a new direction in the continuous repeated shocks

maguanghui said that the basic logic affecting the price trend is still the supply-demand game. From the perspective of the supply contraction expectation with the highest market expectation, the implementation plan of staggered peak production in heating season of iron and steel enterprises released by Tangshan city basically meets the market expectation, but compared with the 50% - 55% production restriction ratio in Wu'an area of Handan, which has been implemented in the early stage, it does not exceed the market expectation

in addition, it is understood that the current limited blast furnace pig iron production capacity calculated by the municipal government is 18.21 million tons, which is slightly different from the impact of more than 20million tons estimated by major institutions in the early stage. Moreover, from the perspective of relevant policies, we have not seen the specific operation involving the production restriction of blast furnace for the time being, and the relevant statements are relatively vague. In particular, it should be treated in different levels and in a differentiated manner, and give preference to high-quality enterprises, state-owned enterprises with heating tasks and enterprises with emission permits, which leaves a large operating space for later policy implementation

just need to be reminded of the uncertainty of steel capacity reduction and iron fist environmental protection on the inhibition of steel supply. The reason is very simple. Steel production is profitable. Fierce competition among enterprises forces enterprises to occupy market share with greater output. Backward production capacity such as "ground bar steel" will also be released by doing everything possible to bypass supervision. All of these have led to the uncertainty of steel market supply based on 2018 data, led to the uncertainty of supply and demand, and finally led to a wide range of fluctuations in steel prices

especially in terms of demand, the demand in Northeast and Northwest China has shrunk significantly recently, but some parts of North China resumed construction after the 19th CPC National Congress, while the southern region is still in the peak construction season, and the overall demand remains at a high level. From 2009 to 2013, however, the shutdown of construction sites and the cement industry in the heating season in North China still has a certain impact on the overall demand. In addition, the real estate market regulation is overweight, and the market is still pessimistic about the late real estate and infrastructure demand. It is expected that the short-term demand may stabilize and weaken

in terms of export, according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China exported 4.89 million tons of steel in October 2017, a decrease of 160000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 2.72 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 35.3%, and the monthly export volume fell below 5million tons for the first time since March 2014. In October, imported steel focused on the strategic emerging industries of Huaibei aluminum based high-end metal materials. The construction materials of the base were 950000 tons, a decrease of 290000 tons compared with the previous month, a decrease of 130000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 12%. From January to October, China exported 64.49 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 28.14 million tons, a decrease of 30.4%; A total of 10.96 million tons of steel were imported, an increase of 50000 tons year-on-year, realizing batch supply to domestic Chery new energy and Tesla, an increase of 0.5%. The continued downturn in exports means that Chinese steel enterprises have lost a shock absorber in terms of price, adding too much uncertainty to the later price trend

on the whole, the current production limit in the heating season of northern steel mills has been implemented successively, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has decreased, and the inventory of the industrial chain has remained low, which has formed a strong support for the trend of steel prices. However, in October, the manufacturing PMI index fell more than expected, and the domestic economy may start a weak start in the fourth quarter. In addition, the real estate market regulation is overweight, and the market is still pessimistic about the late real estate and infrastructure demand. Therefore, in the case of both supply and demand shrinking, the late market game also depends on who will slow down faster. Because there are no new speculation factors, it is expected that the steel market will continue to fluctuate and adjust the market, and it is difficult to make a new breakthrough in the short term

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